Recommendations · What to do next
Of everything you could do,
which is worth doing first.
Ranking needs a common unit and the only honest one is money. Every recommendation carries an expected impact per month, worked out by arithmetic printed on the card — not a score out of ten, not a traffic light.
Measured, not estimated · EU-hosted · Read-only by default
- Ranked byeuros a monthnothing else
- Uncostedranked lastnever invented
- Confidenceabout the inputsnot optimism
- Riskwhat it costsif it goes the other way
- 1Pause the creative that kills marginmeasured · confidence high · risk low€156a month
- 2Raise prices by 5%weighed by confidence · confidence low · risk high€124a month, of €310
- 3Move the saving to Lamp — retargeting, +20% budgetrests on an assumption · confidence low · risk medium€67a month
Ranked by value in money, weighed by how sure the figures are. The pale bar is what it is worth if everything goes right; the red one is what it is worth once weighed.
Each one carries its confidence, its risk and the evidence behind it, and an assumption is marked as one.
01 / The case for it
A list of things you could do is not a plan.
Without it
Advice with no price on it cannot be ranked, so it gets ranked by whatever is easiest to say — a score out of ten, a traffic light, the order somebody typed them in. None of that tells you which one to do on a Tuesday with two hours.
What Profflow does
Ranked in money, with the arithmetic on the card.
Every recommendation carries what it is expected to be worth per month and the sum that produced it. One that cannot be costed carries no number at all and ranks below every one that can — an uncosted suggestion should never outrank a measured one.
02 / Worth understanding
Why ranking needs a unit
Money is the only honest common unit
A list that mixes “improve your ad targeting” with “add your costs” and ranks them by importance is ranking by opinion. Expected impact in euros a month can be argued with, which is the point.
What it rests on, and what it costs to be wrong
Every item carries the figures it was derived from and a plain statement of the risk. Pausing a campaign has a downside; so does repricing. A recommendation that mentions only the upside is advertising.
Uncosted advice is ranked last
Some good ideas cannot be priced. They stay on the list, at the bottom, marked as uncosted — rather than being given a number so they can compete with the ones that have one.
03 / What it lets you do
What follows from getting Recommendations right.
An impact in money
Not a priority score. A figure per month, with the sum that produced it visible.
Confidence about the inputs
A store that has entered real product costs and connected its processor is being advised from measurements. One that has not is being advised from estimates, and the card says which.
Risk stated separately
A price rise can lose volume. Cutting ad spend can lose sales the attribution never credited. Renegotiating a courier cannot really go wrong. These are not the same suggestion with different upside.
The evidence attached
The same figures as the screen behind it, so the reasoning can be checked rather than believed.
Uncosted ranks last
A suggestion with no number carries null rather than a made-up one, and never outranks a measured one.
Silence where there is no data
No campaign recommendations, because campaign-level spend is not read yet. No inventory ones, because stock levels are not synced. No retention ones, because that needs a customer history this product deliberately does not hold.
04 / What it is built from
Recommendations is assembled
from accounts you already run.
- 01Contribution by product
- 02Discount cost and break-even volume
- 03Payment and platform fees
- 04Ad return against break-even
- 05Refund rate by product
- 06Fixed costs
- An impact in money
- Confidence about the inputs
- Risk stated separately
- The evidence attached
05 / How it is worked out
From the account
to the figure on the screen.
- 01FindsThe changes the figures actually support, not a checklist of good practice.
- 02CostsEach one in euros a month, by arithmetic written on the card.
- 03QualifiesWith confidence about the inputs and risk about the downside.
- 04RanksBy money, with the uncostable below everything costed.
[ Asked of the figures ]
Why is this one at the top?
Because it is worth the most per month of everything the product can cost, and the arithmetic that says so is on the card. A suggestion that cannot be costed carries no number and ranks below every one that can.
How Profflow reasons06 / How the figure is kept honest
The same four rules,
on every screen.
- Read-only, on every plan
Profflow observes the accounts it is connected to. It does not write an order, a price, a campaign or a payout back to any of them.
- Measured stays measured
A charge read from an account is labelled measured. Anything modelled — a forecast, a projection, a filled gap — is labelled as such on the screen it appears on.
- Every figure opens
Follow any number to the dated rows underneath it. A figure nobody can check is a figure nobody acts on.
- You approve
The product prepares a decision and shows the evidence. Nothing consequential happens until you say so.
About
Recommendations.
Can’t find the answer to your question?
Contact us by clicking here.
No. It prepares the decision and the evidence; the action stays yours. Nothing consequential happens without approval, and nothing is executed on your behalf today.
From the same model as the dashboard. A discount recommendation is priced from the contribution margin it came out of, a fee one from what the processor actually charged.
Because a gap named is better than a suggestion invented to fill it. The list is as long as the data supports and no longer.
Where the arithmetic supports it, and with the volume risk stated beside it. It will not tell you what your customers will tolerate, because it cannot know that.
See Recommendations on your own figures.
Ranking needs a common unit and the only honest one is money. Every recommendation carries an expected impact per month, worked out by arithmetic printed on the card — not a score out of ten, not a traffic light.