Forecast · Forward view
What the next weeks look like
if nothing changes.
Revenue, profit and orders projected forward, each with a range — and the range is measured, not chosen. It comes from how badly the same method would have missed the history it was fitted to, so a steady store gets a narrow band and a volatile one gets the wide band it has earned.
Measured, not estimated · EU-hosted · Read-only by default
- Next week, net€615central
- Range€581 – €648measured
- History fitted12 weeksthe sample store
- Below 4 periodsno forecastby design
Twelve weeks measured, six projected. The range comes from how far the same method has been out on this store’s own weeks, not from a confidence setting. A week’s profit is its sales at the month’s 31.8% margin — the basis the dashboard forecasts on.
01 / The case for it
A forecast with no range is a guess with a decimal point.
Without it
Draw a line through the history, extend it, print a number. It is the easiest thing in this product to build and the fastest way to lose the reader, because the one question they have — how sure are you — has no answer on the screen.
What Profflow does
The range comes from how badly the method already missed.
The same straight line is run against the store’s own history to see how far off it lands, and the size of those misses becomes the band. A steady store gets a narrow one; a volatile store gets the wide one it has earned.
02 / Worth understanding
What makes a forecast worth printing
A number without a range is a guess in better clothes
Any method can produce a single figure for next month. What makes it useful is knowing how far out it has been before — so the range here comes from testing the same method against this store’s own history, not from a confidence setting.
Too little history means no forecast
Below four comparable periods the product declines to forecast rather than producing something shaped like an answer. Refusing is a feature: a projection from two months of data is a shape, not a prediction.
Nothing is called seasonal
A store that sells coats does not grow smoothly into July, and a straight line through a few months will not know it. The forecast says so: it is a plain trend, stated as one, and it does not claim the years of history a seasonal model would need. The range does the honest work.
03 / What it lets you do
What follows from getting Forecast right.
Revenue, profit and orders
Three forecasts from the same fitted history, each with its own band.
A measured range
Derived from back-test error rather than a confidence percentage typed into a constant.
Widening with distance
Six periods out carries a wider band than one, because it is less knowable.
A floor on the data
Under four periods there is no forecast and the screen says why. A line through three points is a line through three points.
Stated as straight-line
No seasonality is claimed. A trend fitted to one Christmas forecasts a Christmas in February.
Break-even forward
What the coming period needs to return before the advertising stops paying for itself.
04 / What it is built from
Forecast is assembled
from accounts you already run.
- 01Monthly revenue history
- 02Profit history
- 03Order history
- 04Ad spend history
- 05Back-test error
- 06Period length
- Revenue, profit and orders
- A measured range
- Widening with distance
- A floor on the data
05 / How it is worked out
From the account
to the figure on the screen.
- 01FitsA straight trend to the history the store actually has.
- 02TestsThe same method against that history, to see how far off it lands.
- 03RangesThe band from that error, widening with every period forward.
- 04RefusesTo draw anything at all on fewer than four periods.
[ Asked of the figures ]
How confident is that number?
As confident as this store’s own history allows. The band is the error the same method made against the last twelve weeks, widened for distance — six periods out is not as knowable as one, and a flat band would claim it was.
How Profflow reasons06 / How the figure is kept honest
The same four rules,
on every screen.
- Read-only, on every plan
Profflow observes the accounts it is connected to. It does not write an order, a price, a campaign or a payout back to any of them.
- Measured stays measured
A charge read from an account is labelled measured. Anything modelled — a forecast, a projection, a filled gap — is labelled as such on the screen it appears on.
- Every figure opens
Follow any number to the dated rows underneath it. A figure nobody can check is a figure nobody acts on.
- You approve
The product prepares a decision and shows the evidence. Nothing consequential happens until you say so.
About
Forecast.
Can’t find the answer to your question?
Contact us by clicking here.
No, and it says so on the screen. Seasonality needs years of history this product does not have yet. What it does instead is state the method plainly and let the range carry the uncertainty.
Because a forecast off three data points would be the most misleading thing this product could show. Under four periods it returns nothing and explains the reason.
From back-testing. The same method is run against the store’s own history and the size of its misses becomes the band. A store whose weeks are all alike gets a narrow one.
It is built for that — one central figure, one honest range, and the assumptions written down. It is not built to be right; it is built to be checkable.
See Forecast on your own figures.
Revenue, profit and orders projected forward, each with a range — and the range is measured, not chosen. It comes from how badly the same method would have missed the history it was fitted to, so a steady store gets a narrow band and a volatile one gets the wide band it has earned.